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20100513-Stossel-[Place Your Bets].Fox Business.CF.avi
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Video > TV shows
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1
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272.78 MB

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English
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John Stossel Fox Business Network libertarian
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Uploaded:
May 14, 2010
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skJGZV6z



STOSSEL - Place Your Bets: Gambling - Fox Business Network
2010, May 13, Thursday

Xvid/MP3 AVI - encoded from clean composite SD source video

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Web-only bonus segment here:


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[Excerpted from John Stossel's blog]


May 13, 2010 12:36 PM UTC by John Stossel
Tonight's Show: Gambling

Cash-strapped states are considering legalizing "vices" to increase revenue, the WSJ noted this week:

Oakland, Calif., began taxing sales of medical marijuana last year. Now at least a half- dozen states are weighing measures to allow some legal pot sales. Others have loosened decades-long restrictions on Sunday alcohol sales. And about a dozen, like Ohio, have discussed or passed plans to ease restrictions on gambling.

For a map of all the states considering changing their laws, see here. California may go the farthest:

Legislators are debating whether to allow and tax Internet poker, even though such gambling is prohibited by federal law.

It should be legal. If adults want to gamble with their own money, that's our choice.

And bans on betting deprive America of information people get from something called "prediction markets". The biggest one is Intrade.com. It's based in Ireland -- if it were based in America, the owners would be in jail.

On Intrade, people bet on the outcome of future events with other traders. It works just like a stock market: Currently, you can buy a share predicting that Obama will win in 2012 for 59 cents. If he actually wins, you get a dollar. If he doesn’t, you lose your 59 cents.

Because bettors put their money where their mouths are, Intrade has been remarkably accurate at predicting events like election outcomes. A study by U. Penn Economics professor Justin Wolfers found that Intrade has just about half the margin of error of national polls.

And in 2004, for instance, the odds on intrade.com predicted every state's presidential support. In 2008, Intrade predicted every state correctly except one (Missouri.)

Among other predictions: When American soldiers were trying to find Saddam Hussein, Intrade took bets on when he would be found. Right before he was captured, the odds for that date more than tripled in price. This year, the bettors on Intrade predicted all the major Oscar picks correctly.

It’s interesting to see what Intrade.com’s bettors on Intrade predict now:

-- 49% chance the Republicans will take the House in November.

-- 60% chance that California will legalize marijuana in November.

-- 10% chance that Obamacare will be ruled unconstitutional because of the individual mandate.

-- 78% chance that Senate majority leader Harry Reid will lose re-election in November.

-- 23% chance that Sarah Palin will get the Republican nomination in 2012.

Think those odds are wrong? Then you could make money. That is, if you can figure out how to transfer money to Intrade despite the federal ban on online gambling.  Lots of Americans do.

One guest on my show tonight is James Surowiecki, author of "The Wisdom of Crowds." He'll explain why prediction markets are so accurate -- and how ignorance and villification of gambling stopped the Defense Department from starting a prediction market that might save lives by predicting future terrorism.

Comments

Thanks for this and all of the other Stossel torrents, man!
And this site went down, for a spell. You are the only one doing the Stossel gig, skJGZV6z. Thanks to you for every one since the very beginning! Hope they never end.
And this site went down for a spell. Thanks skJGZV6z - you are the only one doing the Stossel gig!
Hope it never ends. Downloaded every one from the very beginning!
You have no idea how much this helps. I'm giving the whole season to a friend.

People need to see this, it helps people think critically!

Thank you!

Thank you

Thank you
Thank you skJGZV6z and all those who appreciate freedom and understand what the loss would mean...